Statistically, that is about 1/1000 games. Would you find the 1 victory satisfying after playing through 999 frusterating games or would you pull your hair out first and stop playing before then?
Uh, you have measurements? I've seen it one hell of a lot more often than that. But then, I try to play every game to the end, for better or for worse. Do you?
http://www.tremulous.net/balanceData:
In games ending as a S3 team against a S3 team, a total of 32253 games (26% of the total number of games played), Aliens won 25852 games (80%) and the humans won 6401 games (20%).
In games ending as a S3 team against a S2 team, a total of 27541 games, (22% of the total number of games played), the aliens won 15360 games (55%), and the humans won 12181 games (44%).
In games ending as a S3 team against a S1 team, a total of 20767 games (16% of the total number of games played), (55%) 11305 were won by the aliens, and 9462 (45%) were won by the humans.
In games ending as a S2 team against a S1 team, a total of 19386 games (15% of the total games played), the aliens won 12342 games (63%), and the humans won 7044 games (37%).
In games ending as a S1 team against a S1 team, a total of 17652 games (14% of the total number of games played), the aliens won 12431 games (70%) and the humans won 5221 games (30%).
In games ending as a S2 team against a S2 team, a total of 6164 games (4% of the total numbers of games played), the aliens won 3408 games (56%), and the humans won 2756 games (44%).
Additionally, if you view these images:
http://tremulous.net/balance/Overall_AS3vsHS1.pnghttp://tremulous.net/balance/Overall_AS1vsHS3.pnghttp://tremulous.net/balance/Overall_AS1vsHS2.pnghttp://tremulous.net/balance/Overall_AS2vsHS1.pngConclusion:
For a S1 team to win against a S2 or S3 team, it's about 2-3% out of all the games played that ended in that situation for the S1 team to win. Additionally, those victories happen within the game ending as a S2 or S3 team against a S1 team between 7 and 8% of the time, which means 8% of 4% comes out to .32% overall average for a S1 team to win against a S2 team, and about .16% overall average for a S1 team to win against a S3 team, when the game ends that way. So I'm off; it's closer to a 1/200 to 1/400 chance than 1/1000.
If you're viewpoint is that the human team somehow gains stages and then kicks the alien teams butt, there's a 10.4% chance the game will end that way overall (20% of 26%) or about 1/10 games, at stage 3 on stage 3. Looking at equal stages, the game will end in human victory about 4.2% of the time at stage 1 against a stage 1 team and 1.76% of the time with a S2 against a S2 team; so it's a 1/20 chance and a 1/75 chance. If you're asking what's the chance of the human team getting to stage 3 in the first place, they've reached S3 29122 times ( meaning 29122 games ended with the humans in stage 3) or about 21% of the time and then from there it depends on what situation they are in to win. 85% of the time the game ends as a S3 V S3 for humans, and out of that, the humans win 20% of the time. and of that remaining 15% of the time the humans win about 13%; so around 45% of 45%, of all games played, or about 20% probability the human team will win at stage 3 against an alien team when everything is factored in.
I could go on about other situations and the probability of progression of stages and killcount estemates, at length, but it depends on how you define an out-of-nowhere victory. I define it as when a loss is all but tactically assured and something completly random happens to stop that.
Here's a question Tuple. In what situation do you leave a game that's happening, aside from needing to stop playing for some reason, and why? What's your threshold for frusteration?