''Proof is a difficult thing, because the truly convincing stuff isn't always so easy to get to. It takes an expert to see enough evidence to support a claim and even then experts will disagree. So we end up having to trust the word of a person who we expect to have spent more time studying the subject than us. This is why I can fully understand how your 'proof' might look just as convincing as another person's 'proof' looks to me. I am assuming you are not an expert since I don't see you mentioning peer reviewed articles you've written but are merely citing articles that aren't your own.''
I will have to agree with you that the truly convincing stuff isn't so easy to reach, as it requires you have completmentary informations. Such as, why would the United-States declare war after terrorism? Many people have said it was that they needed a new reason to keep expanding capitalism after the cold war. Altho, you don't have to trust me, as, as you've said, the articles I sent you aren't written by me. You must trust Pieczenik, is he who he pretends he is? Did he see the truth? Don't forget that he's not the only one to say such things, Pakistan Observer also reported the death of Osama, etc...
''So this is what it comes down to: it's not a matter of proof for people like us so much as it's a matter of judgement. To give you an idea of how I decide what to believe I'll try and break down my decision processes when faced with a claim.''
You are right, it is a matter of judgement, you either judge what is real or not, then you judge the coherance of it, etc...But when some people say they have facts, such as Pieczenik who might go in front of a judge to affirm what he did on my source, then it's not a simple question of ideology or jugement, but a question of proofs.
''1. Is it possible? [Requires: Imagination]
Start by assuming they're right and then try to explain things with it and explain it with things. If you can't imagine a world where it could be true, there's no way you can believe the claim.
e.g. I admitted I could see motivation for keeping his death a secret.''
Thus you are closer to my beliefs than does who don't see a motivation for keeping his death a secret. I'd like to point out that it's not a simple question of imagination, it's also of question of sense. If you have different informations that could make you doubt in the events that are going wrong in our worlds, such as the economical crysis, the wars, etc., then you might just find it logical that they hid Bin Laden, just by your understanding of what's going on. So it makes you lean more torward such theories*.
*Of course, this doesn't make it true for that simple reason.
''2. Is it likely? [Requires: Knowledge]
Draw on past experience to determine how often such a scenario occurs.
e.g. I've found that lies take more effort to keep going than the truth, personally. People will still lie when they feel it's safe to, but lies (especially big lies) are too risky more often than not.''
Bigger lies are said to work best, actually. If you wish to draw on past experience to determine how often such a scenario occurs, you must first ask yourself, what scenario is occuring right now? It's the medias that explains how the war against the axis of evil is going on. I don't know for you, but I've seen enough of these lies for the past years.
''3. Do you want it to be true? [Requires: Self Reflection/Restraint]
Consider the possibility that you're not being influenced by the search for truth. If you would love something to be true and hate it to be false, is it any wonder that you're more likely to believe the one that makes you happier? There are many things I believe that don't make me happy, but for me it would be worse to believe a lie.
It's this last one that I believe is the #1 cause for widely held false beliefs. Religions and conspiracy theories, for example, both give simple rules that govern large and complex systems. I can see the appeal of such beliefs when the alternatives have been too hard to understand, too boring, too scary and too upsetting.
I don't think you're a troll Garion, and you've made an effort to explain yourself which I appreciate. All I can say is I don't agree with your certainty about this. I think it's more likely you're choosing a convenient truth than it is likely you have considered it properly. There are many more boring large-scale conspiracies (such as price-fixing for example) out there with much less entertainment appeal which are accepted not because they are fun but because they have good evidence. There are secrets kept by the US government that have far better reason to be secret than a flimsy premise for continued war. Secret stealth helicopters for example, but then again I'm not sure if you consider that just another thread in the medias web of lies.''
I am not claiming I'm 100% right, but I am searching for truth. Yes, this theory makes sense with many things, but I am also basing myself on true experts and credible persons. In the end, we could say that we all chose the truth we believe in, because even when you see something, how do you know your interpretation is the true one? Doubt can be imposed to everything, it can make your fortune as it can make you fall. Don't forget that people who believes in conspiracies are usually place in the same lots as the reptilians of David Ickes, and yes, many persons made up many theories of conspiracy, but theories of conspiracy aren't some stories made up by random people and without validity, therefore they aren't to put on the same level. Continuing the war means they can own strategic military points in the region, therefore they can act there more easily. For exemple, it would allow the United-States to help Israel with troops, if they were attacked*.
*take the case of egypt which is starting to take a certain place in the Israelopalestinian conflict. And the alliance between the two palestinian factions, the Hamas and the Fatah. Things are moving, it's what I'm saying, and not only with these actors.
